000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040313 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT OCT 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 122.3 W AT 04/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 760 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MARIE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OR 315 DEG AT 02 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MARIE HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED AND PARTIALLY FILLED EYE FROM MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND TIGHTER GENERALLY WITHIN 90 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES. MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE STEADY STATE FOR 18-24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING IS INDUCED BY COOL WATERS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E HAS FORMED. THE DEPRESSION IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 99.4 W AT 04/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 190 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OR 005 DEG AT 02 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. A JASON-1 ALTIMETER PASS AROUND 22Z INDICATED MAXIMUM SEAS NEAR 12 FT NEAR THE CENTER. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N87W TO 13N98W TO 09N110W TO 11N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A STRONG NWLY UPPER JET AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW N OF THE ZONE ARE HAVING LITTLE WIND EFFECTS S OF 30N. HOWEVER...NW SWELL TRAVELING FROM THAT REGION WILL BE MOVING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS ELEVATING SEAS TO 8-12 FT ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE ZONE. THIS NW SWELL WILL THEN INTERACT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES FROM MARIE AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO CREATE VERY CONFUSED SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED N AND W OF MARIE PROVIDING THE WESTWARD STEERING. WIDESPREAD STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND COVERS MUCH OF THE ZONE. A 1011 MB LOW HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 10N136W...POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ON ITS E SIDE. E OF 110W.. ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL PORTION E OF 100W TONIGHT. PART OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWLY FORMED DEPRESSION DISCUSSED ABOVE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION LIES FARTHER E ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. ANOTHER AREA IS LOCATED JUST S OF THE ITCZ AXIS (OUTLINED ABOVE). SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING SFC LOW PRESSURE FORMATION FROM THIS OVERALL TROUGHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FROM INTRODUCING IN THE HIGH SEAS AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS. NONETHELESS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GAP WINDS...NOT MUCH DATA TO TELL IF WINDS ARE STILL FUNNELING THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NLY FLOW...ALBEIT LIGHT...IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N TO NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. $$ CANGIALOSI