000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE AT 03/2100 UTC IS NEAR
17.6N 122.2W...OR ABOUT 875 MILES/1415 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MARIE IS MOVING WEST
OR 270 DEGREES 02 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND THE 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE FORECAST IS FOR
MARIE TO REACH 70 KT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THEN
RETURN TO A TROPICAL STORM AFTER 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N
TO 18N BETWEEN 121W AND 123W.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 03/1800 UTC IS NEAR 14N100W...
ABOUT 170 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST. 
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 106W. THIS LOW CENTER MAY BECOME 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...
11N86W TO 13N104W TO 10N115W TO 10N132W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 81W AND 95W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 140W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 110W...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF 30N FROM
140W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA IN THE U.S.A.

A NARROW TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
EXTENDS FROM A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N133W
TO 18N133W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
WEST OF THE 27N133W 18N133W TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
NOTHING BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN...WITH EVEN STRONGER 
SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA.

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH CONTINUES
TO COVER MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TO ARRIVE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SEAS TO BUILD OVER THE 
FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WATERS AGAIN TO 8 TO 12 FT LATE 
IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE PEAK SWELL REACHING THE WEST COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE MON.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE THAT 
WAY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A NEAR CONTINUAL SUPPLY OF SW SWELL CONTINUES TO ARRIVE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC E OF 110W...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF
9 TO 11 FT FORECAST TO LINGER GENERALLY NORTH OF 10N THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

$$
MT