000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU OCT 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE AT 03/1500 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 122.2W...OR ABOUT 875 MILES/1405 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MARIE IS MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES 02 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE PATTERN OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MARIE IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. MARIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN 36 HOURS OR SO INTO THE FUTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 03/1200 UTC IS NEAR 14N100W... ABOUT 170 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS LOW CENTER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. THIS LOW CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...THE ITCZ... 11N86W TO 14N99W TO 12N104W TO 10N117W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N79W 12N90W...AND FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W... FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 94W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... WEST OF 110W... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS INDICATE AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET WELL N OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD SEND A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL SHOULD REINFORCE THE 7 TO 9 FT NORTHWESTERLY SWELL THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY NW OF A LINE RUNNING FROM 27N114W TO 09N140W. EXPECT SEAS TO REBUILD OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WATERS TO 8 TO 12 FT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE PEAK SWELL REACHING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE MON. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW PEELING OFF FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC JET RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA AS FAR SOUTH AS 23N. A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TO NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE...WHICH IS KEEPING THE MARIE ON A MOSTLY WESTERLY PATH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NOTHING BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN...WITH EVEN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. EAST OF 110W.. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS IS NOTED OVER MEXICO AS FAR S AS 19N IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH NE MEXICO. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MEANWHILE...ENHANCED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXISTS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A NEAR CONTINUAL SUPPLY OF SW SWELL CONTINUES TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC E OF 110W...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT FORECAST TO LINGER GENERALLY NORTH OF 10N THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. $$ MT