000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 121.5 W AT 03/0300 
UTC...OR ABOUT 725 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. MARIE IS MOVING WEST OR 270 DEG AT 06 KT. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 
CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE HAS BEEN CHANGING 
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY 
COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND SE OF THE CENTER AND OVERALL SLIGHT 
WARMING OF THE CLOUDS IN A LARGE CURVED BAND IN THE OTHER 
QUADRANTS. MARIE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN 
MOVING SLOWLY W-NW OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...CURRENTLY CENTERED 
ABOUT 150 NM S OF ACAPULCO NEAR 14N100W. THIS SYSTEM HAS 
GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIMITED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS FAILED TO INDICATE A SFC 
CIRCULATION...APPEARED TO BE MORE OF SHARP TROUGH AXIS...WHICH 
HELPS EXPLAIN THE RATHER LINEAR DEEP CLOUD PATTERN. THIS SYSTEM 
STILL HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (20-50%) TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N85W TO 11N110W TO 10N120W TO 
11N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 04N E 
OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM N AND 300 
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. THE STORM MAY 
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE IT TRACKS W INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE 
AIR AND COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REFER TO THE 
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE MID AND UPPER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A HIGH SITUATED NEAR 
18N140W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED AXIS RUNNING E-W ALONG 18N. 
STRONG NW FLOW LIES OVER THE NE WATERS ON THE S SIDE OF LARGE 
SCALE MID-LATITUDE/POLAR TROUGHING. THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SERIES OF ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS EXPECTED TO 
RACE NE/E WELL N OF THE ZONE. WHILE THIS IS NOT TRANSLATING TO 
STRONG WINDS IN THE REGION...LARGE NW SWELLS WILL BE REINFORCED 
BY THESE STORM SYSTEMS. 

E OF 110W..
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. WIDESPREAD DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND CONFLUENT 
FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIES OVER THE EPAC WATERS DUE TO THE 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN AND IS THEN SPREAD S AND W BY STRONG NE TO E 
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DEEP TROPICS. WHILE MOISTURE IS 
ABUNDANT...DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND MUCH OF IT IS 
DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...NO HELP FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS EVENING. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO HAVE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP 
EVENT HAS ENDED. WORDED LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AS THE SFC PATTERN BECOMES REINFORCED. 

$$
CANGIALOSI