000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE AT 02/2100 UTC IS NEAR
17.6N 120.9W...OR ABOUT 800 MILES/1290 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MARIE IS MOVING WEST OR
270 DEGREES 06 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND T.S. MARIE WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN MARIE AS A STORM WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM
40 KT TO 50 KT FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...LEADING TO A SLOW 
WEAKENING AFTER 96 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 02/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14N100W...
ABOUT 170 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. IT IS MOVING WEST 5 KT. 
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KT TO 25 KT...AND SEAS RANGING FROM 8 FT TO
10 FT ARE WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 15N
TO 15.5N BETWEEN 98W AND 99W...AND FROM 13.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 
99.5W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...IN AN AREA OF WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.

...THE ITCZ...

11N86W TO 11N103W TO 10N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...

NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 20 KT
TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTHEASTWARD TO 17N98W IN 
MEXICO...AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHEASTWARD...GRAZING THE NORTHERN 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BEYOND. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE IS IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE ITCZ EAST OF 110W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 
26N/27N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALSO COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 130W AND BEYOND
140W.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC OCEAN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...
REACHING 28N117W AT ITS BASE.

$$
MT