000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE AT 02/1500 UTC IS NEAR
18.0N 120.3W...OR ABOUT 755 MILES/1210 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MARIE IS MOVING
WEST OR 270 DEG 06 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND T.S. MARIE FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS IS JUST ENOUGH NOT TO ALLOW MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT...
BUT ALSO NOT MUCH WEAKENING EITHER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 17N120.5W.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N100W...ABOUT 240 NM
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING WEST 5 KT. THIS LOW CENTER
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN ELONGATED TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N
BETWEEN 98W AND 100W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 104W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KT TO 25 KT AND SEAS
RANGING FROM 8 FT TO 11 FT ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...

14N90W 13N98W...INDISTINCT BETWEEN 100W AND 130W...AND CONTINUING
FROM 11N130W BEYOND 11N140W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 02N TO 10N EAST OF 86W...AND FROM 09N TO 13N 
BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 94W.

...DISCUSSION...

NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 20 KT
TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTHEASTWARD TO 18N100W IN 
MEXICO...AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHEASTWARD...GRAZING THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BEYOND. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE IS IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE ITCZ EAST OF 110W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 26N/27N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC OCEAN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...
REACHING 29N118W AT ITS BASE.

$$
MT