000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300334 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE SEP 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 96W HAS AN ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N. THIS WAVE IS WAS MOVING W ABOUT 7 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE LOW. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN 45 NM OF 14N102W. RECENT SHORT WAVE IR IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WHERE IT DISSECTS THE ITCZ. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE TO FUNNELING SWD AND INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A MEDIUM POTENTIAL OF IT UNDERGOING SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 4N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER EL SALVADOR AND CENTRAL HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N TO 18N ALONG 114W IS MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS PART OF YET ANOTHER AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES WHICH CONSISTS OF A WEAK AND SMALL LOW PRES CENTER TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N110W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO EVIDENT S OF THIS LOW NEAR 14N110W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N113W TO 19N111W ..AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 14N115W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 11N95W 13N104W 12N114W 10N124W 12N133W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W-119W. ...DISCUSSION... A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEEP CYCLONE N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N142W S TO JUST W OF THE AREA ALONG 141W. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES W COAST EXTENDING S TO 32N119W. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH TO INLAND THE UNITED STATES W THROUGH TUE MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS HAS ENTERED THE AREA THROUGH 30N138W TO 28N140W. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING UP 12 FT NW OF THE FRONT IN LONG PERIOD SWELLS BEGINNING NEAR 24 HOURS. LOW TO MID LEVEL BROAD LOW PRES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W AND SMALL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES. SURFACE SW-W WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OBSERVED TO THE S OF THE LOWS. BROAD SW-W LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 105W-123W. THIS AREA IS ANALYZED AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES ON THE SURFACE MAP. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND RIDGING EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE/WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS IS FUNNELING MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS OBSERVED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 0030 UTC JUST PAST 0100 UTC WHERE WINDS OF 25-30 KT WERE REVEALED WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARILY SPEEDS OF 35 KT CLOSE IN TO THE COAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD WEST OF THE LOW PRES NEAR 10N96W ...AND BOTH 10M AND 30M MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT THESE WINDS LASTING THROUGH FRI BUT AT DECREASING VELOCITIES. $$ AGUIRRE