000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N96W EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 96W HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE WNW. THE TROPICAL 
WAVE IS ALONG 96W N OF 04N. A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS FUNNELING ENERGY SOUTHWARD 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS 
ENHANCING SURFACE CYCLONIC TURNING N OF THE PACIFIC LOW. 
PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 92W-100W. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 03N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 86W-90W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112W/113W FROM 06N TO 20N MOVING W AROUND 
5 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N112W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE 
WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 112W-119W. A VERY SMALL AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-18N 
BETWEEN 108W-111W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W TO 14N110W TO 10N120W TO 
12N137W TO 11N140W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY MENTIONED IN 
THE SPECIAL FEATURE AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA FROM 05N-10N 
BETWEEN 81W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07-11N 
BETWEEN 101W-104W. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
LIES FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 121W-128W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 
132W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERED THE NW CORNER NEAR 32N139W AND EXTENDS 
SW TO BEYOND 30N140W TO 24N150W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM E OF FRONT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALSO PUSHING INTO THE 
NW WATERS AND SHOULD PASS N OF AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE COLD 
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND SEAS WILL BE 
ELEVATED TO AS HIGH AS 12 TO 14 FEET.  

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE STATIONARY 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N110W WSW TO 
NEAR 15N130W. A REGION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES BETWEEN THIS 
RIDGE AXIS AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING INTO NW WATERS. TO 
THE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A MEAN MID TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIES 
FROM NEAR 15N110W TO 10N140W. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A REGION OF 
ACTIVE CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A 1010 MB LOW HAS 
DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 12N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 135W AND 
137W. 

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION...20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL N TO NE FLOW IS PASSING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE S OF 06N AND E OF 95W...NE TO N UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT 20 
TO 45 KT WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

$$
FORMOSA