000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291006 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON SEP 29 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 11N94W HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE WNW. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W TO 95W N OF 04N. DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS FUNNELING ENERGY SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW PRES SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE WNW OUT OF THIS AREA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 03N IS MOVING W ABOUT 7 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND THE WAVE ALONG 95W BETWEEN 06N AND 10N. TROPICAL WAVE N OF 04N ALONG 94W TO 95W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1006 MB LOW NEAR 11N94W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W 5 KT. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ITS E...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND BETWEEN 09N AND 12N FROM 96W TO 101W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N TO 14N. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N TO 18N ALONG 107W IS MOVING W AROUND 8 KT. TO THE NW OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 21N105W TO 16N108W. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 167N ALONG 122W IS MOVING W AROUND 8 KT. THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 112W TO 127W WITH THE ITCZ CROSSING THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 10N96W TO 11N109W TO 11N107W TO 10N125W TO 11N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 94W AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 127W. ...DISCUSSION... SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHING INTO NW WATERS AT THE MOMENT SHOULD PASS N OF AREA TODAY...ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED TO AS HIGH AS 12 TO 14 FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N120W WSW TO NEAR 15N140W. A REGION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AXIS AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING INTO NW WATERS. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A MEAN MID TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM NEAR 15N110W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 122W AND 107W 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 121W AND 117W. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A REGION OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM NEAR 15N WHICH SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FLOW ALOFT NEAR THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES FARTHER W ON THE SW EDGE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL N TO NE FLOW IS PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE S OF 08N AND E OF 95W...NE TO N UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT 20 TO 45 KT WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. $$ SCHAUER CLARK