000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN SEP 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W MOVING W 5 KT. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION 
CAN BE FOUND IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 04N.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 95W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE LIES WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
BETWEEN 87W AND 98W.  THE ITCZ CROSSES THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 10N 
AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 270 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 18N ALONG 105W MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 117W MOVING W 8 KT. A 1010 
MB LOW PRES IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. CONVECTION IS 
MINIMAL WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 10N96W TO 12N107W TO 
10N125W TO 11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N AND 270 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
128W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BECOME ELEVATED OVER FAR NW WATERS BY 
TOMORROW MORNING AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE 
REGION.  SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSING INTO NW 
WATERS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO 
BE ELEVATED TO 12 FT IN THE REGION BY LATE TOMORROW.  IN THE 
MEANTIME...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY ALONG 30N130W 
TO NEAR 23N140W IS BEING BUMPED NORTHEAST OF THE STATIONARY  
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N112W BY THIS 
APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. 

LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING FROM 18N106W TO 10N130W IS PROVIDING 
A FOCUS FOR THE AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.  WITHIN THIS 
REGION...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 117W WITH AN EMBEDDED 1010 
MB LOW PRES CENTER AT 16N.  WHILE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WEAK 
WITH THIS SYSTEM...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT 
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE.  ESE 
OF THIS REGION FROM 00N TO 11N E OF 120W...EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
IN THE 20 TO 45 KT RANGE...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP 
CONVECTION DESPITE PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE E OF 105W.  

AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND RIDGING ALONG THE 
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS FUNNELING MODERATE N TO NE SURFACE 
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

$$
SCHAUER CLARK