000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W MOVING W 10 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AND IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SW 
CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 94W/95W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 6N-14N MAINLY E OF THE WAVE 
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 105W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-17N ALONG 116W MOVING W 10 KT. A 1008 MB 
LOW PRES IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W TO 12N110W TO 10N125W TO 
11N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
90-120 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 105W...AND FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 104W 
AND 107W.  

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 32N137W TO 19N128W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING 
SE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH GENERALLY N OF 27N W OF 
132W...OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE 
AIR IS N OF 19N W OF 110W. LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION E OF THE TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 22N112W WITH RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA INTO 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT BUT MODERATE ELY FLOW 
SW OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE 
NEAR 16N116W DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS SAME FLOW IS SHEARING THE 
CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 5N-20N E OF 115W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ELONGATED 1021 MB HIGH PRES WITH A 
MEAN CENTER NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N138W TO 23N115W. BROKEN TO 
MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 20N W 
OF 115W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED JUST INLAND OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N114W. MODERATE N TO NE SURFACE WINDS 
ARE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS OF 20-25 KT. A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN DGSE 
LOCATED NEAR 13N94W REPORTED NNE WINDS OF 20 KT. SEAS ARE UP TO 
10 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 48 
HOURS. 

$$
COBB