000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272111
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT SEP 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W MOVING W 10 KT. CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE 
IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 94W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 88W-92W.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 104W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 102W 
AND 107W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-17N ALONG 116W MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB 
SURFACE LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE LOW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W TO 12N110W TO 10N125W TO 
11N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
90-120 NM OF AXIS W OF 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE AXIS E OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 
33N139W TO 19N128W. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING SE ON 
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N W OF 135W...OTHERWISE 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR IS N OF 20N W 
OF 110W. LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF THE 
TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N113W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SW OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM 
ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 15N116W DESCRIBED ABOVE. ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 5N-20N E OF 115W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 32N141W TO 20N10W. BROKEN TO 
MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 20N W 
OF 115W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N114W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THE 
TROUGH WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. STRONG N TO NE SURFACE 
WINDS ARE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS 20-25 KT.

$$
DGS