000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE COAST OF PANAMA.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 93W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 89W-97W.

TROPICAL WAVE AN OF 6N ALONG 103W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 14N TO THE MEXICAN 
COAST BETWEEN 99W AND 106W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-17N ALONG 116W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 
SURFACE LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N116W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE LOW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 12N110W 10N125W 11N135W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 105W-110W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 130W-136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N134W TO 18N129W. SOME UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING SE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF
28N W OF 135W...OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR IS N OF 20N W OF 110W. LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION E OF THE TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N114W WITH RIDGE
EXTENDING N ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SW OF THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A 
LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 15N 116W DESCRIBED 
ABOVE. STRONG ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW S OF 13N IS LIMITING DEEP 
CONVECTION S OF 15N E OF 100W...DESPITE ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED HERE DUE TO 
THE EASTERLY SHEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 32N142W TO 20N117W. BROKEN TO 
MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 20N W 
OF 115W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA S TO 22N106W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THE 
TROUGH WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. STRONG N TO NE SURFACE 
WINDS ARE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS 20-25 KT.

$$
DGS