000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270957 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT SEP 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W ENTERING THE FAR E PACIFIC MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W AS WELL AS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS E OF 79W BETWEEN 06N AND 08N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 04N INTO EASTERN GUATEMALA MOVING W 13 KT. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE WAVE AXIS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO OVER GUATEMALA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 05N IS MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND E OF THE WAVE N OF 14N TO THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W MOVING W 15 KT. A SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM LIES AHEAD OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 15N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM W AND 120 NM E QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 119W NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N87W TO 12N98W TO 12N110W TO 11N120W TO 11N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 119W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N115W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...EVEN AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E OVER NORTHWESTERN WATERS. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND PASS OVER THE ANTICYCLONE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. MEANWHILE...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...CARRYING A COLD FRONT INTO FAR NW WATERS MON EVENING. WHILE A LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION WITH THE TROUGH...SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NW WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM EARLY MON IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION N OF 20 N OVER FORECAST WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE FAR N EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 101W AS IT CONTINUES ON A WESTERLY TRACK S OF THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. S OF 20N W OF 113W... THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 15N116W TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE INVIGORATED LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW LIES UNDER A MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 122W THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. WITHOUT A STRONG STEERING CURRENT...EXPECT THE SURFACE TO LOW TO ALSO BE SLOW TO MOVE. MEANWHILE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM...HELPING THE CAUSE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW. FARTHER W ALONG THE ITCZ...AN ASCAT PASS AT 0646 UTC IS SHOWING INCREASED SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 11N132W WITH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITHIN 270 NM NW QUADRANT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. S OF 20N E OF 113W... S DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE BLEEDING THROUGH THE GULF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0324 UTC CONFIRMS N TO NE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW S OF 13N IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. DESPITE BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED HERE DUE TO THE EASTERLY SHEAR. $$ SCHAUER CLARK