000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI SEP 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 5N TO ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS IS MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE...EXCEPT OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 4N-18N IS MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS LOST A LOT OF ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE PERSISTENT MONSOON FLOW PATTERN HAS LET UP SOME OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A FEW SMALL WEAK CYCLONIC LOW CLOUD SWIRLS ARE NOTED FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 94W-106W. GLOBAL MODELS STILL DEPICT THAT A LOW PRES CENTER...MOST LIKELY ON THE WEAK SIDE...MAY FORM WITHIN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 34-48 HOURS...AND THEN TRACK IN WNW DIRECTION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THIS AREA FROM CONSOLIDATING IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 12N95W 12N101W 12N110W 10N120W 10N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W-134W... AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-107W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W... THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED BELOW UNDER E OF 120W EXETNDS SW TO 15N130W WHERE A COL REGION IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TO THE W OF THIS PORTION OF THE AREA BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED S OF 28N. A MID/UPPER UPPER RIDGE MOVING E 10-15 KT IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL DEEPENING TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N126W...AND EXTENDS SW TO 25N131W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION THROUGH FRI BEFORE LIFTING NE WHILE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW FLOW SUN INTO MON. MOISTURE IN THIS AREA REMAINS VERY LIMITED AS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. ONLY DEEP MOISTURE IS THAT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH CENTER OF 1019 MB IS JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 30N142W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 28N135W TO 24N125W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 24N. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE ITCZ NEAR 10N133W...AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN ITS VICINITY. S TO SW SWELLS OF UP TO 8 FT WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE MARINE HIGH SEAS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 95W-122W TO THE S OF 8N...AND TO THE S OF 7N BETWEEN 95W-118W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. E OF 120W... MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST W OF MEXICO NEAR 21N108W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 21N110W TO 18N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER ELY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES OF 1006 MB NEAR 16N114W IS MOVING W AT 7 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE WESTWARD TO NEAR 118W WHERE IT ERODES AS IT MOVES INTO THE SUBSIDENCE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE PRES PATTERN HOLDS THROUGHOUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE NLY FLOW WILL DRAIN DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE N WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEGINNING IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. THIS EVENT IS FORECAST TO LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. $$ AGUIRRE