000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252114
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N 83W MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 7N ALONG 95W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BUT 
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N-18N ALONG 106W MOVING W 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N
WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 12N104W 10N125W 8N140W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 127W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N131W TO 25N140W. DOWNSTREAM 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 25N132W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 
110W-120W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST 
OF MEXICO IS CENTERED NEAR 21N107W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW OF THE 
ANTICYLONE TO 15N130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 20N107W. 
THE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 
19N-22N. A NE 40-50 KT WIND MAX EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF 
NICARAGUA TO 2N102W.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N114W DRIFTING WNW. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR
10N132W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITH THE LOW ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 127W-135W. OTHERWISE BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20W W OF 115W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 
115W.

$$
DGS