000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N 82W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
COAST OF PANAMA.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 7N ALONG 94W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE N PORTION OF THE 
WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N-18N ALONG 105W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
96W-104W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 13N95W 9N130W 8N140W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 126W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N132W TO 26N140W. DOWNSTREAM 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 24N132W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120 AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 
110W-120W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
22N107W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO NEW 
MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW OF THE ANTICYLONE TO 14N131W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST 
OF MEXICO FROM 18N-22N. A NE 40-50 KT WIND MAX EXTENDS FROM THE 
N COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 2N102W.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N114W DRIFTING WNW. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR
10N132W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITH THE LOW ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 126W-135W. OTHERWISE BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20W W OF 120W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA WITHIN THE RIDGE.

$$
DGS