000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250347 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU SEP 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 5N TO ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SE MEXICO IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 10N. OVER LAND...A 3 DEG WIDE CLUSTER OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER SE MEXICO CENTERED AT 17N94W. THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA DESCRIBED BELOW...AND MOST PROBABLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 4N-18N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN LARGE SW MONSOONAL FLOW WHICH PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SOME BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL IS STILL NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION EARLIER NOTED HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AND ONLY ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXIST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N98W TO 17N102W TO 19N105W. GLOBAL MODELS STILL DEPICT THAT A LOW PRES CENTER...MOST LIKELY ON THE WEAK SIDE ...MAY FORM WITHIN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 34-48 HOURS...AND THEN TRACK IN WNW DIRECTION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THIS AREA FROM CONSOLIDATING IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N79W 12N90W 15N100W 10N110W 10N120W 9N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-110W...AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W-131W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W... THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED BELOW UNDER E OF 120W EXETNDS TO 15N130W WHERE A COL REGION IS THEN OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TO THE W OF THIS REGION ...A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY E IS JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N141W. A MID/UPPER UPPER RIDGE MOVING E 10-15 KT IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 135W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL DEEPENING TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N129W...AND EXTENDS SW TO 24N135W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION THROUGH FRI BEFORE LIFTING NE WHILE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW FLOW SUN INTO MON. MOISTURE IN THIS AREA REMAINS VERY LIMITED AS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. ONLY DEEP MOISTURE IS THAT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE THROUGH 28N128W TO 21N120W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 20N. A WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS ON THE ITCZ NEAR 10N131W...AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN ITS VICINITY. S TO SW SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE MARINE HIGH SEAS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE FAR SRN WATERS BETWEEN 105W-130W TO THE S OF 6N...AND TO THE S OF 7N BETWEEN 98W-120W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. E OF 120W... MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N99W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 21N110W TO 17N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER ELY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES OF 1006 MB NEAR 16N112W IS MOVING SLOWLY W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE WESTWARD TO NEAR 118W WHERE IT ERODES AS IT MOVES INTO THE SUBSIDENCE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE PRES PATTERN HOLDS THROUGHOUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE NLY FLOW WILL DRAIN DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE N WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE