000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240350 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED SEP 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 05N TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W ABOUT 16 KT. ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N96W. OTHERWISE THIS WAVE IS EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SATELLITE CLOUD SIGNATURE ...THEREFORE IT HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO TRACK. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 05N WITH A LOW CENTER NEAR 14N97W EXTENDS NNE TO ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IS MOVING W 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN LARGE SW MONSOONAL FLOW FOUND THROUGHOUT THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT ALSO DISSECTS THE ITCZ AXIS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE NO DEFINITE LOW PRES SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY FORMING WITHIN THIS AREA...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N97W TO 15N96W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRES CENTER MAY STILL FORM WITHIN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TRACK IN WNW DIRECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 12N95W 10N102W 11N110W 10N121W 9N135W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W-98W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W... THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED BELOW UNDER E OF 120W EXETNDS TO 16N127W WHERE A COL REGION IS THEN OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TO THE W OF THIS REGION ...A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY E IS JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N141W. AN UPPER LEVEL SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N119W. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E ACROSS THE SW NITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL DEEPENING TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N134W AND EXTENDS TO W OF THE AREA THROUGH 28N140W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION THROUGH FRI BEFORE LIFTING NE WHILE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW FLOW SUN INTO MON. MOISTURE IN THIS AREA REMAINS VERY LIMITED AS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. ONLY DEEP MOISTURE IS THAT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N135W WITH A RIDGE SE THROUGH 27N130W TO 22N120W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 20N. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE ITCZ NEAR 10N122W...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. S TO SW SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE MARINE HIGH SEAS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE FAR SRN WATERS BETWEEN 105W-130W TO THE S OF 6N...AND TO THE S OF 7N BETWEEN 95W-122W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. E OF 120W... MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 23N98W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 21N110W TO 17N120W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO FAR NW MEXICO AND NRN BAJA TO NEAR 27N115W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER ELY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SURFACE LOW PRES OF 1006 MB NEAR 17N109W IS MOVING W 8 KT. WHILE THE CIRCULATION WITH IT HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS JUST ABOUT COLLAPSED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS TO NEAR 118W. $$ AGUIRRE