000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W/106W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N ABOUT 330 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W INCLUDING
OVER MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED 
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 17N. IT IS MOVING WEST 
10 TO 15 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND 83W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 20N FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11.5N.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 21N
BETWEEN 90W AND 91W OVER LAND. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS FROM
7N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 92W AND 93W.

...ITCZ...

15N96W 12N105W 10N123W 8N133W 9N140W. WARMING CLOUD TOP 
TEMPERATURES...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE LINGERING 
SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 
130W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14.5N96W SIX HOURS AGO
HAS DISAPPEARED FROM THE 22/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS ARE MOVING WESTWARD FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W.
 
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8.5N TO 11N BETWEEN
118W AND 122W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 
124W AND 126W.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH 34N115W TO 28N123W AND 24N130W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 27N116W 23N121W 19N131W
BEYOND 15N140W.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH MEXICO NEAR 
28N108W TO 21N113W TO 15N119W.

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS FROM
24N107W 14N120W 16N140W TO 32N.

$$
MT