000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N105W ABOUT 300 NM WEST 
OF ACAPULCO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W.  
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM 
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 16N REACHING PANAMA.
IT IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 21N FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
08N TO 12N BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA AND 92W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W/106W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST
10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN
104W AND 106W.

...ITCZ...

10N85W 11N97W 10N110W 10N124W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN COLOMBIA 
AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 
116W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14.5N96W ABOUT 140 NM
SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WERE AROUND THIS LOW CENTER FIVE TO SIX HOURS AGO. ALL THAT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST FIVE
TO SIX HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS FROM 13N TO MEXICO
BETWEEN 95W AND 101W.

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N122W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 124W
AND 125W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.A...PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 27N123W 24N128W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 27N116W 23N121W 19N131W
BEYOND 15N140W.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH MEXICO
NEAR 27N110W ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 21N114W
TO 15N119W.

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS FROM
24N107W 14N120W 16N140W TO 32N.

$$
MT