000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 04N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOVING 
W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS LOCATED UP TO THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE 
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 04N TO 16N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 
KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH IT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 06N77W TO 06N105W TO 11N115W TO 
11N125W TO 08N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF 04N E OF 81W INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 10.5N87.5W...05N89.5W...09N91W...AND 08.5N137W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
75 NM OF 10N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF A LINE FROM 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 17N130W TO 12N140W. A MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 22N140W TO NEAR 25N125W WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED FROM 15N TO 28N W OF 125W. INCREASING SW 
FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED 
OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE FROM 32N135W 
TO 28N140W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 
114W N OF 25N WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED N OF 25N E OF 120W INTO 
NW MEXICO. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST OVER THE AREA N OF 
25N IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FLOW ALOFT S OF THE SUBSIDENCE 
LINE NOTED ABOVE TO THE EQUATOR IS EASTERLY WITH SATELLITE CLOUD 
DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KT. AT THE 
SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 14N130W TO 08N131W. A 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 33N136W TO 21N125W. 
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS TO 10 FT ARE LOCATED S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W 
AND 125W. 

E OF 105W...
WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA E OF 105W ARE EASTERLY TO 
SOUTHEASTERLY AND ARE STRONGEST S OF 05N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
85W AND 95W AND MEASURE UP TO 40 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS TO 10 
FT ARE LOCATED S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W. NORTH WINDS FROM 
20 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 24 
HOURS.

$$
CAB