000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON SEP 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC ALONG 85W AND N OF 4N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 3N-8N. THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN WSW TO 12N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N85W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W FROM 03N-14N IS MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SW MONSOON FLOW THROUGHOUT THIS AREA AS WELL AS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 6N77W 9N85W TO 9N96W TO 8N105W TO 10N120W TO 9N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-114W...AND ALSO W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17.1N82W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS SRN HONDURAS TO NEAR 11N93W. TO ITS NW...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS SE MEXICO FROM AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOSITURE FROM NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BEING CHANNELED N AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS...THEN IS CAUGHT UP IN NE FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER TROUGH ALLOWING FOR IT TO SPREAD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 23N/24N. MODERATE TO STRONG NE-E FLOW S OF THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER MOISTURE WSW TO W OF 120W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ALONG 8N109W 13N115W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES RATHER ZONAL N OF THE RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED STABLE CONDITIONS NOTED IN THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE IS JUST N OF THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 115W N OF 32N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION UNDER SLIGHT DIFFLUENT FLOW IS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N102W TO 17N101W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO IS TRIGGERING OFF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 22N107W. GAP WINDS...A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY PUSHING S THROUGH NRN AND CENTRAL MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN N WINDS OF 20-25 KT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO POSSIBLY THU EVENING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 9 FT. W OF 120W... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA AS DENOTED BY A RATHER PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING E ABOUT 10 KT NEAR 26N135W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO N OF THE AREA AT 32N137W AND REACHES A CREST TO WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N137W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N124W TO 29N125W TO 22N126W WHERE A COL REGION IS IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TO THE S OF THE COL...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALONG 20N124W 14N124W TO 9N122W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTING THROUGHOUT WITH ASSOCIATED STABLE CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WITH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W 10-15 KT IS ALONG 19N135W 15N135W. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PREVALENT TO THE N OF 21N BETWEEN 120W-130W...AND N OF 14N W OF 135W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 22N12W. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N. $$ AGUIRRE