000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 83W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE MAINLY LOCATED ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SEA.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N-14N ALONG 104W MOVING W 10 KT. MOST 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE WAVE IS ALONG THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 9N95W 12N120W 8N140W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG N OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 220 NM S OF AXIS FROM 105W TO 111W AND WITHIN 
120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 136W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N131W TO AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 26N136W CONTINUES TO 32N139W. 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 115W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR N 
PORTION OF THE AREA IS N OF 30N E OF THE RIDGE.

ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM THE 
TEXAS BIG BEND TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER MEXICO NEAR 
24N104W TO 21N120W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGH SW TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. MID/UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS 
ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM COLOMBIA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
PACIFIC N OF 2N E OF 86W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N134W TO 17N115W WITH 
BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 20N W 
OF 115W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ 
NEAR 11N129N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE 
OF LOW. A 1008 MB LOW IS NEAR THE N COAST OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N115W WITH TROUGH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 24N109W.

$$
DGS