000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA ALONG 81W/82W N OF 05N 
MOVING W 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVE ARE MAINLY LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA 
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTEND SWD OVER THE 
PACIFIC WATERS NEAR THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W/103W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE 
IS ENTANGLED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES 
PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST. THEREFORE...THE SATELLITE 
SIGNATURE IS DISORGANIZED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
CONCENTRATED NEAR THOSE OTHER FEATURES.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N77W TO 11N116W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 04N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 102W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WATERS AND IS PRODUCING A 30-35 KT UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING 
FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 90W THEN INTO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. 
THIS FEATURE IS PULLING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TSTM ACTIVITY 
OVER COLOMBIA WWD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS...BUT THEN IT PULLS 
NWD INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. WIDESPREAD MOISTURE IS LOCATED SW OF THE UPPER 
LOW...COVERING MUCH OF SRN AND CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN 93W-110W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY OFF THE MEXICAN COAST IS DECAYING AT THE MOMENT...BUT 
THERE IS STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 94W-104W.

W OF 110W...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO WWD TO 22N120W TO ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR 23N135W. 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS 
N OF 14N W OF MEXICO WITH ONLY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED 
ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 
20N115W WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS.

$$
BERG