000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140308 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN SEP 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W FROM 4N-13N MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 7N85W 10N100W 11N110W 9N118W 10N127W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W-87W...AND 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-131W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N115W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 27N117W TO 22N124W. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 23N135W...WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS E OF THE AREA OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N102W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO 21N112W TO 18N122W...WHERE A COL REGION EXISTS IN BETWEEN BOTH ANTICYCLONES. A RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N135W TO NW OF THE AREA AT 32N140W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N AND W OF 127W. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA CONTINUES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...SO BESIDES SPORADIC ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY OTHER FORM OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EXISTING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO IN MODERATE TO STRONG NE FLOW. THIS MOISTURE CONSISTS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WHAT WAS LEFT OVER FROM TROPICAL STORM IKE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS WELL AS MOISTURE FROM MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES SUN AND MON. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST S OF THE AREA NEAR 1S94W IS HELPING TO DRAW THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SWD TO BELOW THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95W-110W. A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH W OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NNE AND DAMPEN AS IT PASSES JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MON THROUGH WED...THE GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUR EVEN MORE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 27N125W TO ABOUT 22N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 125W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 5 KT IS ALONG 130W/131W FROM 8N-13N. THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 128W-131W. THE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SSW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DENOTE THE PREVAILING OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE DISCUSSION. REGARDING THE HIGH SEAS MARINE FORECAST...LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC WATERS...EXCEPT W OF 125W. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD MAX UP TO 8 FT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BUILD TO 9 FT SUN NIGHT INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK PRIMARILY ALONG AND JUST N OF THE EQUATOR. $$ AGUIRRE