000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130322 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W FROM 3N-14N MOVING W ABOUT 18 KT. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-9N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N79W 9N90W 8N100W 10N110W 8N120W 10N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-90W AND ALSO BETWEEN 92W-98W. ...DISCUSSION... A RATHER SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WRN UNITED STATES THROUGH 32N117W...AND CONTINUES TO 27N119W TO 22N125W. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N136W...WHILE A SECOND ONE IS E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER ERN TEXAS NEAR 29N98W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO 21N112W TO 19N124W... WHERE A COL REGION EXISTS BETWEEN BOTH ANTICYCLONES. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS CIRCULATING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER ERN TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE CONSISTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL AND MOISTURE FROM SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF MEXICO. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 48-72W HOURS. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE... SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...EXISTS OVER THE FAR SRN SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 2N137W. AS A RESULT...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT S OF 16N AND W OF 120W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRUSHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA N OF 32N W BETWEEN 132W AND 139W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UNITED STATES W COAST OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AS ITS SRN EXTENT STAYS ALONG OR MAYBE JUST S OF 32N. MODERATE E-SE UPPER FLOW IS NOTED ON THE SW SIDE OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE...WHILE SIMILAR FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH TO ITS NW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...TO A LESSER EXTENT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IS ADVECTING WWD BY THE ELY FLOW TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. THIS MOISTURE REACHES W TO 110W BEFORE IT ERODES IN A DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE CONDITIONS AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MAINLY N OF 15N W AND W OF 110W. THIS CONTINUES TO PUT A CAP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 26N128W TO 21N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W ABOUT 7 KT IS ALONG 130W FROM 11N-15N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF 12N130W. THE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REGARDING THE HIGH SEAS MARINE FORECAST...LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC WATERS...EXCEPT W OF 120W WHERE SE SWELLS PREVAIL. MODEL WAVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RUN IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BUILD TO 9 FT SUN NIGHT INTO TUE ALONG AND JUST N OF THE EQUATOR. $$ AGUIRRE