000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU SEP 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 23.3N 110.1W OR ABOUT 
30 MILES NNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 11/0900 UTC MOVING ENE 
OR 065 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND NEAR 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WELL 
TO THE N OF THE SYSTEM...N OF 25N W OF 111W. LOWELL IS FORECAST 
TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER NW MAINLAND MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3 OR WMO 
HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER MIATCMEP3 OR WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W TO 09N109W WHERE IT 
TEMPORARILY ENDS. IT RESUMES AT 17N107W AND EXTENDS TO 12N120W 
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF 
THE AXIS E OF 91W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 120W N OF 20N 
IS CURRENTLY INFLUENCING T.D. LOWELL NE INTO SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SW FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS 
MOVING OVER LOWELL...SHEARING ITS CONVECTION OVER LAND OFF TO 
THE NE. ELSEWHERE OVER WATERS N OF 20N...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT 
AND SUBSIDENCE REIGNS OVER THE REGION.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC FROM 12N 
AND 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W WEDGED BETWEEN THE BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE N AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO THE S.  
THIS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ IN THIS REGION. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY CALM ATMOSPHERIC 
CONDITIONS...SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BROUGHT WAVE HEIGHTS 
TO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE OVER THIS REGION AND TO ITS S OVER 
FORECAST WATERS. 

FARTHER W ALONG THE ITCZ...A 1010 MB EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW LIES 
NEAR 12N129W. THE CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MEAGER AT THIS 
TIME...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ONLY FOUND WITHIN 120 
NM NW QUADRANT AS THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS SE 
IS SKEWING THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS NORTHWESTWARD.

E OF 90W S OF 20N...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FOUND WITH 
MUCH OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OCCUPIED BY T.D. LOWELL AND 
HURRICANE IKE TO THE N. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH 
PANAMA AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE 
AS IT PASSES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK