000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 112.7W OR ABOUT 
165 NAUTICAL MILES WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND ABOUT 170 NAUTICAL MILES S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AT 
10/0900 UTC MOVING NE OR 360 DEG AT 04 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 
LOWELL OVER NIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W QUADRANT. LOWELL IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE ON A NE PATH THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...INTO 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER NW 
MAINLAND MEXICO ON FRI. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3 OR WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC 
AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3 OR 
WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 07N95W TO 08N107W...THEN 
RESUMES AT 18N105W TO 12N120W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 106W AND 
WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 420 NM S OF 
AXIS E OF 82W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG 120W N OF 20N IS APPROACHING T.D. 
LOWELL AT THE MOMENT AND BEGINNING TO HAVE MORE OF A NORTHWARD 
INFLUENCE ON ITS TRACK. LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED NE BY 
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO 
MAINLAND MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO 
SHOVE THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NEAR 25N104W NE 
TOWARD THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL E FLOW CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH 
RELATIVELY LOW AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION ON 
THE SW SIDE OF HURRICANE IKE SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 15N AND 20N E OF 110W. FROM THIS REGION WSW TO APPROX 
10N120W THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CONFLUENT BETWEEN THE BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE N AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR 
00N120W. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TO THE S...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM 
THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE 
THE SYSTEM...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION N OF 05N AND E 
OF 90W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ITCZ...THE 
BURST OF CONVECTION EARLIER NOTED NEAR 11N129W IS DISSIPATING. 
THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING 
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
AND THE 0238 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTED A CLOSED CIRCULATION.  
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE QUIKSCAT DATA WAS RAIN 
CONTAMINATED IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.

N OF 20N W OF 120W...STRATOCUMULUS AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK