000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 09N84W TO 13N100W TO 10N114W TO 
12N1309W TO 10N136W. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND N OF THE ITCZ TO MEXICAN 
COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. 

...DISCUSSION...

QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0100 UTC CONFIRMS CLOSED CIRCULATION AROUND THE 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 14N105W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CAN BE 
FOUND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. THIS LOW IS 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND LIES IN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN 
BAJA PENINSULA AND BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT CENTERED ALONG 
5N-10N. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION 
OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH 
THE GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION. MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THIS 
LOW ESE INTO SW MEXICO/GUATEMALA. CURRENTLY...MODERATE UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING W INTO 
MEXICO FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS LIFTING THE LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGED ALONG THIS TROUGH AND GENERATING NUMEROUS 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF ITCZ TO MEXICAN 
COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. 

ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM 26N140W TO 
32N132W AND WNW INTO SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROUGH CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX NEAR 
28N109W...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LYING OVER MAINLAND MEXICO 
AND BEING STEERED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. 
EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH 
UPPER TROUGHING LYING ALONG THE FAR NW AND N PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 
120W.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK