000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED IS CENTERED FROM 13N103W TO 12N115W TO 
12N122W TO 10N131W TO 07N138W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FOUND WITHIN 120 NM S FROM FROM 111W TO 115W. AVAILABLE MOISTURE 
IS CURRENTLY LIMITED NEAR THE ITCZ W OF 110W. LITTLE CONVECTION 
IS OCCURRING DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 
THE CONVECTION THAT IS FIRING NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 110W TO 115W IS 
BEING TRANSPORTED S OF THE ITCZ BY THE N TO NE MEAN UPPER TO MID 
LEVEL FLOW ON THE S EDGE OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


...DISCUSSION...

A PERSISTENT MONSOON TROUGH CAN BE FOUND OFF THE SW COAST OF 
MEXICO EXTENDING ESE INTO NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ENHANCED BY THE LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THIS REGION COUPLED BY 
WEAK TO MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CAN BE FOUND N OF 11N BETWEEN 
90W AND 96W. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE LIES 
SOMEWHERE NEAR 16N104W AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS WNW OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR TWO. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND 
TIMING OF THIS SURFACE LOW...WITH THE GFS INITIALLY THE MOST W 
SOLUTION AND THE FASTEST TO CARRY IT W IN THE FORECAST PERIOD 
AND THE UKMET THE WEAKEST SOLUTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION 
AND WEAK STATE OF THE SYSTEM WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FAST GFS AND 
STRONG UKMET IS LOW.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N111W. NE TO 
E FLOW ALOFT HAS BLOWN THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OFFSHORE N OF 
20N TO THE MEXICAN COAST ALONG 106W. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM 
THIS ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS W ALONG 22N...WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING 
FOUND IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MOST 
OF THE E PAC N OF 15N W OF 115W.

N SWELL GENERATED BY MODERATE LOW LEVEL N FLOW OFF THE CA COAST 
IS INFILTRATING THE FORECAST AREA N OF 25N W OF 125W WHILE S 
SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CROSSED THE 
EQUATOR W OF 115W...WITH MORE S SWELL EXPECTED TO ADVANCE N INTO 
THE REGION FROM 92W 115W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK