000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040910 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU SEP 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 12N86W TO 10N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF THE AXIS TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 109W. ...DISCUSSION... TROPICS... A WELL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED OFFSHORE THE W COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL SW TO W WINDS REACHING AT LEAST AS FAR N AS 20N AND E OF 120W. THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 21N114W SE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE OF THE HONDURAN/NICARAGUAN BORDER. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN DOMINANT OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC FOR MORE THAN A WEEK AND IS PARTLY A RESULT OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN. MOISTURE-LADEN AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND ALONG 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTERSECTS SW TO W FLOW. ELSEWHERE...8-9 FT S TO SW SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO ARRIVE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... GENERALLY SW OF LINE FROM 00N140W TO 15N120W TO 20N105W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SOME OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BUT A NEW SWELL TRAIN WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BY FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS REBUILDING AGAIN TO 8-11 FT BY SAT. SUBTROPICS... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ARE LOCATED NEAR 21N 114W...OR ABOUT 275 NM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO... WITH A PRESSURE OF 1008 MB DRIFTING SLOWLY W. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ONLY. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0150 UTC INDICATED WINDS OF ONLY 20 KT CONFINED TO WITHIN 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. OTHERWISE...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH THE ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. TO THE W...AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION FROM 30N135W TO 20N140W...AND BOTH FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE AREAS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW MEXICO AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA. A MODEST JET LIES BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH...EXTENDING NE OF 27N130W WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 40-50 KT SPREADING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE DESERT SW. EARLIER GALES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAVE PRODUCED 8 TO 10 FT N TO NE SWELLS WHICH CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA. NE WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT ARE ALSO BLOWING OVER A PORTION OF THIS AREA...GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM 22N140W TO 30N125W. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SWELLS GREATER THAN 8 FT CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NW PART. $$ COBB