000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 09N80W TO 11N95W TO 11N110W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N-11N E OF 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 98W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICS...
A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC 
MEXICAN COAST WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY WINDS REACHING 
AS FAR N AS 20N E OF 120W. THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF EXTENDS 
ROUGHLY FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. KARINA NEAR 21N114W SE 
ABOUT 120 NM OFF THE MEXICAN COAST TO NEAR EL SALVADOR/ 
NICARAGUA...WITH WESTERLY WINDS BLOWING ONTO THE COASTS OF COSTA 
RICA AND WRN PANAMA. MOISTURE-LADEN AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS 
FLOW...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE 
COAST BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. FARTHER W...THE TRADES 
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED W OF 120W WITH A FAIRLY LINEAR ITCZ AXIS 
AND SPORADIC ASSOCIATED TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDING TO 140W. THE 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRIMARILY NE/EASTERLY OVER THE REGION...AND 
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE 
COASTAL CONVECTION HAS REACHED AS FAR W AS 120W.

8-9 FT S/SW SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAVE SPREAD 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 85W AND 130W. THESE 
SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BUT THEN A NEW 
SWELL TRAIN WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BY FRI MORNING...BUILDING 
AGAIN TO 8-11 FT BY SAT.

SUBTROPICS...
THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. KARINA IS LOCATED NEAR 21N114W...OR 
ABOUT 280 NM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...WITH A PRESSURE OF 
1006 MB. THE LOW IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM 
W SEMICIRCLE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE 
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH THE ASSOCIATED AXIS 
EXTENDING ALONG 23N/24N E OF 130W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. TO THE 
W...AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION FROM 
30N135W TO 17N140W...AND BOTH FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION 
IS AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND 
THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. KARINA...WHICH HAS PENETRATED INTO THE 
RIDGE AND HAS REACHED NWD TO 26N E OF 122W. A MODEST JET LIES 
BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH...EXTENDING NE OF 27N130W 
WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 40-50 KT SPREADING ACROSS NW MEXICO.

WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAVE PRODUCED 8-10 FT N/NE SWELLS 
THAT HAVE PROPAGATED INTO THE AREA W OF 112W. THESE SWELLS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH A SMALL 
AREA OF SWELLS GREATER THAN 8 FT CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NW PART.

$$
BERG