000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031511 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED SEP 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 114.0W...OR 285 NM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 03/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ2 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KARINA HAS ONLY BEEN PRODUCING OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING INTO A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. KARINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE W OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A REMNANT LOW THEN POSSIBLY DISSIPATE BY THU EVENING. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 09N80W TO 11N95W TO 11N110W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 100W-110W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... TROPICS... A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC MEXICAN COAST WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY WINDS REACHING AS FAR N AS 20N E OF 120W. THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM T.D. KARINA SE ABOUT 120 NM OFF THE MEXICAN COAST TO NEAR EL SALVADOR/NICARAGUA...WITH WESTERLY WINDS BLOWING ONTO THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA. MOISTURE-LADEN AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN WRN PANAMA AND ACAPULCO MEXICO. FARTHER W...THE TRADES BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED W OF 120W WITH A FAIRLY LINEAR ITCZ AXIS AND SPORADIC ASSOCIATED TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDING TO 140W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRIMARILY NE/EASTERLY OVER THE REGION...AND MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE COASTAL CONVECTION HAS REACHED AS FAR W AS 120W. 8-10 FT S/SW SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 85W AND 130W. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BUT THEN A NEW SWELL TRAIN WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BY FRI MORNING...BUILDING AGAIN TO 8-11 FT BY SAT. SUBTROPICS... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH THE ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 23N/24N E OF 130W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. TO THE W...AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION FROM 30N135W TO 17N140W...AND BOTH FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS AN AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND T.D. KARINA...WHICH HAS PENETRATED INTO THE RIDGE AND HAS REACHED NWD TO 26N E OF 122W. A MODEST JET LIES BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH...EXTENDING NE OF 27N130W WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 30-45 KT SPREADING ACROSS NW MEXICO. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS IS LOCATED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 105W-108W. WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAVE PRODUCED 8-10 FT N/NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED INTO THE AREA W OF 112W. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF SWELLS GREATER THAN 8 FT CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NW PART. $$ BERG