000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES CENTER 1002 MB AT 18N109W UNDER AREA OF MODERATE 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN DESPITE 
ENTERING COOLER WATERS AND STABLE ALBEIT VERY MOIST AIR MASS. 
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...IF IT OCCURS... 
SHOULD BE WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS AS THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME 
STEADILY MORE HOSTILE FOR INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N86W TO 12N96W TO 10N110W TO 08N122W TO 
07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 10N-14N 
BETWEEN 91W-100W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 130W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER 23N109W EXTEND W ALONG 21N-22N TO 
137W.  ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINS VERY 
DRY AIR MASS N OF 21N AND N OF 10N W OF 114W SUPPRESSING ANY 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.  MAIN MOISTURE AREA 
ASSOCIATED ALONG ITCZ.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 39N139W HAS RIDGE COVER REGION N OF 
25N W OF 114W.  INTERACTION WITH LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA PRODUCING GALE FORCE N WINDS N OF 32N AND STRONG 
WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT ARE SPILLING INTO E PAC ALONG COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SUBSIDING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO LAST 
THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW WIND FIELD S OF MONSOON TROUGH COMBINED WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SWELLS CAUSING 10 FT SEAS S OF 10N E OF 130W LIKELY LASTING 
THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS BEFORE SUBSIDING. SWELLS MAY REACH CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COAST IN 8-9 FT RANGE.

$$
WALLY BARNES