000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011558 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON SEP 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... LOW PRES CENTER 1002 MB AT 17.5N107W UNDER AREA OF MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN DESPITE ENTERING COOLER WATERS AND STABLE ALBEIT VERY MOIST AIR MASS. POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...IF IT OCCURS... SHOULD BE WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS AS THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME STEADILY MORE HOSTILE FOR INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 07N-17N MOVING W AT 10 KT EMBEDDED IN LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH FEATURE. NO SIGNS OF CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION HAVE BEEN NOTED NOR EXPECTED AS WAVE REMAINS UNDER ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND WILL SOON ENTER REGION OF DRY AIR MASS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 13N90W TO 08N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 11N91W TO 12N102W TO 09N109W TO 08N136W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTEND W ALONG 22N TO BEYOND 135W. ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 20N W OF 113W AND N OF 12N W OF 116W SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING. MAIN MOISTURE AREA IS ASSOCIATED ALONG ITCZ. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 39N142W HAS RIDGE COVER REGION N OF 20N W OF 110W. INTERACTION WITH LOW PRES 1001 MB OVER SW CONUS PRODUCING GALE FORCE N WINDS N OF 32N AND STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT ARE SPILLING INTO E PAC ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SUBSIDING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. SW WIND FIELD S OF MONSOON TROUGH COMBINED WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS CAUSING 10 FT SEAS S OF 10N E OF 130W LIKELY LASTING THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS BEFORE SUBSIDING. SWELLS MAY REACH CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST IN 8-9 FT RANGE. $$ WALLY BARNES