000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 00000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W/110W FROM 09N-16N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
NE OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN GENERATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 
21.5N105.5W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE PART OF A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION SW OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL INHIBIT 
DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. A WEAK LOW CENTER MAY STILL DEVELOP ON THE FAR E
SIDE OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N87W 11N97W 12N110W 11N120W 
9N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-102W...AND WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-123W AND ALSO W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
21.5N105.5W TO 22N118W TO 18N126W. ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 14N W OF 112W...
AND IS SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING. MAIN
MOISTURE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

AT THE SURFACE...
RIDGE EXTENDS SE THROUGH 32N133W TO 28N126W. HIGH PRES COVERS
THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 130W. THE ATTENDANT HIGH CENTER ANALYZED
AS 1030 MB N OF AREA NEAR 40N140W IS INTERACTING WITH 
LOW PRES OVER THE SW UNITED STATES TO PRODUCE N-NE WINDS OF
20-25 KT OVER THE N AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SEAS UP
TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW WIND FIELD S OF MONSOON TROUGH COMBINED WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SWELLS ARE CAUSING 8-10 FT SEAS S OF 10N E OF 130W LIKELY 
LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS BEFORE SUBSIDING. SOME OF 
THESE SWELLS MAY REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST IN THE
8-9 FT RANGE.

$$
AGUIRRE