000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W/104W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DUE TO THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...AND THUS HAS MADE VERY SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESS. 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRES COULD FORM 
ALONG THIS WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...BUT THE LOW WOULD 
LIKELY RETROGRADE EASTWARD AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO THE W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING NEAR THE WAVE 
AXIS BUT NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS.
     
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N77W TO 14N100W TO 14N110W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 
83W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
112W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICS...
THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE N NEAR 14N 
E OF 115W WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES 
EXTENDING FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE AXIS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS 
CAUSING VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF EMBEDDED EASTERLY 
WAVES...AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. THE 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION IS PRIMARILY 
NE/EASTERLY...WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRES COULD 
DEVELOP FROM THIS TROUGH...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH A 
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. W OF 115W...THE NORMAL ITCZ CONFIGURATION IS IN 
PLACE WITH UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES DOMINATING THE REGION.

SUBTROPICS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
NEAR 23N122W...BOUNDED BY A SMALL UPPER LOW OVER EXTREME NW 
MEXICO AND A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ORIENTED NE/SW ACROSS 30N140W. 
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS WEAK AT THE MOMENT WITH WINDS GENERALLY 
5-10 KT ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N130W 
TO 26N140W WITH QSCAT DATA INDICATING NE WINDS TO 20 KT 
OCCURRING NW OF THE AXIS. AN AREA OF STRONGER NLY WINDS OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND SWD OVER THE NEXT 48 
HRS...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 25 KT S OF 30N...AND THIS WILL 
RESULT IN 8-12 FT NLY SWELLS MOVING S INTO THE REGION.

$$
BERG