000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292223
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 10N LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT CYCLONIC 
ORGANIZATION AND MAINTAINS CONVERGING WINDS ALOFT INHIBITING ITS 
DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED IN MOIST AIR MASS AND SCATTERED 
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM E OF AXIS NO 
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS WHILE UPPER 
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE.
     
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N77W TO 14N100W TO 14N110W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 81W-88W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 
86W-103W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
11N-17N BETWEEN 104W-120W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS FROM 120W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES MOST E PAC N OF ITCZ 
CENTERED AT 24N116W PRODUCING HEALTHY NE-E FLOW ADVERSE TO DEEP 
CONVECTION E OF 110W.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAIN RIDGE 
STATIONARY FOR NEXT 48 HRS.  UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW W OF 120W 
ENHANCING CONVECTION IN AREA LACKS UPLIFT MECHANISM.  

COMPLEX LOW PRES 1005 MB OVER CALIFORNIA SQUEEZES GRADIENT WITH 
HIGH PRES CENTER WELL W OF E PAC CREATING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 
AREA WHICH 20-25 KT WINDS REACHING N OF 26N WITH LARGE LONG 
PERIOD SWELLS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS TO 9 FT AFFECTING AREAS S OF LINE 10N 
FROM 100W-125W.

$$
WALLY BARNES