000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 100W S OF THE MEXICAN COAST 
MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES...WHICH IS RESULTING IN THE SLOW 
PROPAGATION OF THE SYSTEM AND ALSO A VERY WEAK SIGNATURE. THIS 
WAVE MAY BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS LATER TODAY. MOST 
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ORIENTED LINEARLY ALONG THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO 
NOTED AT THE N END OF THE AXIS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST 
BETWEEN 99W-102W.
     
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 09N84W TO 13N97W TO 11N107W TO 
14N117W TO 10N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 
12N BETWEEN 83W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
180 NM OF AXIS W OF 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICS...
TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES...ONE CENTERED W OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA NEAR 25N121W AND THE OTHER S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 
12S100W...ARE PRODUCING A FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY JET ALOFT 
STRADDLING THE EQUATOR WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS NEAR 50 KT. THE 
EASTERLIES ARE ABOUT AS FAR W AS 130W AND ARE PRODUCING WEAK 
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH REGION S OF MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS QUITE PRONOUNCED AT THE 
MOMENT WITH LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXTENDING FAR TO THE EAST TO 
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
18N113W TO 12N118W.

SUBTROPICS...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 25N121W WITH 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WWD THROUGH 140W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS BOUNDED BY TWO UPPER 
LOWS...ONE ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICAN BORDER AND THE OTHER NEAR 
32N138W. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BORDER IS HELPING TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 28N E OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BUT IS ALSO 
DRAWING A NARROW BELT OF DRY AIR FROM THE W INLAND ACROSS PARTS 
OF NW MEXICO. STRONG NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ALONG 
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH NORTHERLY SWELLS MOVING INTO THE 
AREA S OF 30N. THE FLOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH 
WILL DROP S TO 30N BY SAT NIGHT.

$$
COBB