000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272117
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PANAMA ALONG 81W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. 
THIS WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
MAKER AT THE MOMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W N OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM E AND 120 NM W OF 
THE WAVE AXIS N OF 14N...TRIGGERED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
BETWEEN EXTENSIVE WLY FLOW W OF THE AXIS AND ELY TRADES OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N85W 14N96W 13N110W 13N117W 
11N130W 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 
12N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...
THE REMNANTS OF JULIO HAVE FIZZLED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND NW MEXICO...THOUGH SOME OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS 
AFFECTING NW MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-23N E OF 108W 
ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER 
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ARE 
DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS WIDESPREAD DRY AIR LIES OVER 
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON THE N AND W PERIPHERIES OF A NEARLY 
STATIONARY UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N115W. AT THE SFC...A 1027 
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N141W CONTROLS THE PATTERN PRODUCING 
MODERATE NE TRADES. N WINDS ARE TO GALE FORCE N OF THE 
ZONE OFF THE N CALIFORNIA COAST DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE DESERT SW CONUS. 
WHILE THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE N OF THE AREA... 
ASSOCIATED N SWELL IS PROPAGATING N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

S OF 20N...
SWIFT ELY MID AND UPPER FLOW LIES OVER THE REGION E OF 115W ON 
THE S PERIPHERY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST W 
OF THE S PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW IS 
ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICS... 
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED OUTSIDE OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W. A PAIR OF BEGIGN SFC LOWS ARE ANALYZED 
NEAR OR EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 120W. THE SW 
SWELL EVENT WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS HAVE REACHED THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA/MEXICO AND SHOULD SUBSIDE TOMORROW AND 
FRI.   

$$
CANGIALOSI