000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PANAMA ALONG 79W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. 
THIS WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
MAKER AT THE MOMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W N OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS 
N OF 12N...TRIGGERED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN EXTENSIVE 
WLY FLOW W OF THE AXIS AND ELY TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W TO 14N98W TO 13N117W TO 
09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...
THE REMNANTS OF JULIO HAVE FIZZLED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
...THOUGH SOME OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS AFFECTING NW 
MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-23N E OF 109W ENHANCED BY 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MEXICO. 
OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ARE DEVOID OF 
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS WIDESPREAD DRY AIR LIES OVER THE REGION 
...ESPECIALLY ON THE N AND W PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY 
UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N114W. AT THE SFC...A 1026 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 37N142W CONTROLS THE PATTERN PRODUCING MODERATE NE 
TRADES. HOWEVER...N WINDS ARE TO GALE FORCE N OF THE ZONE OFF 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE DESERT SW CONUS. WHILE THE CORE 
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE N OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED N SWELL IS 
PROPAGATING N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W.

S OF 20N...
SWIFT ELY MID AND UPPER FLOW LIES OVER THE REGION E OF 115W ON 
THE S PERIPHERY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST W 
OF THE S PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW IS 
ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE 
TROPICS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED 
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W. A PAIR OF WEAK SFC LOWS 
ARE ANALYZED NEAR OR EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 
122W. THESE LOWS ARE LIKELY ENHANCING SOME TSTM ACTIVITY BUT IT 
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. THE SW SWELL EVENT OF 16-18 
SECONDS HAS REACHED THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA/MEXICO AND 
SHOULD SUBSIDE TOMORROW AND FRI.   

$$
CANGIALOSI