000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 94W FROM 5N TO 20N AND IS MOVING W 15 
KT. UNLIKE 24 HOURS AGO...NO LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING 
IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS 
FEATURE. INSTEAD A MASS OF CONVECTION IS BOTH OVER AND ONSHORE 
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG THE 
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...CLOUD-WIND VECTORS AND 
QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS 
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SW OR W...WITH NO SIGNS OF INCIPIENT LOW 
PRESSURE FORMING. GLOBAL MODELS A WEAK AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING 
ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AND MOVE IT INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO 
BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ACAPULCO BY THU WITHOUT ANY 
APPRECIABLE DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W TO 14N95W 09N107W TO 09115W 
THEN 19N113W TO 11N130W TO 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 
124W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
FROM 06N103W TO 03N108W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 13.5N103.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO CONSIST OF A SWIRL OF 
LOW CLOUDS NEAR 28.5N 111.4W OR SW OF HERMOSILLO IN NW MEXICO.  
WITH THE CENTER JUST SLIGHTLY INLAND AND STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR 
PREVAILING...THE PROSPECT OF REGENERATION IS NOT LIKELY. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH JULIO HAS ALREADY SPREAD INLAND OVER NW AND N 
CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SW CONUS...POSSIBLY 
ENHANCING MONSOONAL RAINS. A 0156 UTC QUIKSCAT IMAGE OFFERED 
EVIDENCE THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
REMAINS OF JULIO...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SEAS HAVE LIKELY SUBSIDED 
GREATLY IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.

OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA... ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL NW TO N FLOW OFF OF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST IS CAUSING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO 
ARRIVE...WITH NW TO N 20 KT WINDS CREEPING INTO THE WATERS N OF 
28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0336 UTC ALSO 
INDICATES RELATED NE WINDS TO 20 KT ALSO EDGING INTO THE WATERS 
N OF 28N W OF 130W. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL OVER THE 
EASTERN AREA AND AROUND 7 TO 8 FT IN THE WESTERN AREA. THE 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS INCREASE IN WINDS HAS 
PUSHED INLAND OVER THE LOWER 48 AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS 
FORECAST TO TAKE ITS PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A 
RESULT...MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRESENT BURST OF WIND SHOULD 
DIMINISH WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 8 OR GREATER SEAS ALSO 
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASING WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG SW TO W WINDS TO THE SE OF THE WESTERN END OF 
THE ITCZ...POSITIONED UNUSUALLY FAR N THE PAST FEW DAYS...IS 
BEGINNING TO COME TO AN END. IN FACT...A MUCH SMALLER AREA OF SW 
20 KT WINDS IS EVIDENT IN A 0200 UTC QUIKSCAT IMAGE THAN 24 
HOURS AGO WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM SE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16.5117.5W 
AND 14N123W. NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS SUBSIDING TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT NOW OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREME 
UNDERESTIMATION OF WINDS TO THE SE OF THE ITCZ THE LAST FEW 
DAYS...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT STILL EXIST 
OVER THIS OR A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA.

FINALLY...LONG PERIOD SW SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM SYSTEM 
SEVERAL DAYS AGO IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MID-LATITUDES HAS 
ENGULFED THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WATERS AND SHOULD REACH 
THE COAST OF MEXICO BY EARLY TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO 
BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS GENERALLY S OF 10N 
BETWEEN 91W AND 127W BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE 
BY THU.

$$
KIMBERLAIN