000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261515 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE AUG 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 28.4N 112.4W AT 26/1500 UTC MOVING NNW OR 350 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. JULIO IS SPINNING DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW MAINLY CONSISTING OF ONLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. SOME MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO N MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W N OF 5N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SW TO W LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC PORTION OF THE WAVE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE N PORTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N83W TO 09N110W TO 12N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... A PAIR OF UPPER HIGHS DOMINATE THE SUBTROPICAL EPAC. ONE IS CENTERED NEAR THE S PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N113W AND THE OTHER IS LOCATED N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 29N152W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS LIES BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH FROM S CALIFORNIA TO 27N130W. THIS PATTERN IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES 1025 MB CENTERED NEAR 37N146W DOMINATES THE PATTERN PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE TRADES. S OF 20N... FAIRLY SWIFT MID TO UPPER FLOW LIES E OF 115W ON THE S PERIPHERY OF RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE S PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM MAINLAND MEXICO ALLOWING FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN THE ITCZ. WHILE THE UPPER FLOW LIGHTENS W OF 115W... CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE ORGANIZED DUE TO A NWD PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ ALONG 125W...OUTLINED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. $$ CANGIALOSI