000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIO CENTERED NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 27.5N 112.4W AT 25/2100 UTC MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. CONVECTION HAS 
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED 
MODERATE NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. LAND INTERACTION 
COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN JULIO TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND TO A REMNANT 
LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PANAMA ALONG 81W N OF 4N MOVING W 15-20 
KT. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC TURNING IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN BUT THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS NEAR ITS BASE N OF 4N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 11N86W TO 08N84W TO 14N119W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N79W TO 07N108W TO 14N120W TO 
09N128W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 14N122W TO 14N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
TROPICAL STORM JULIO IS THE MAIN FEATURE...SEE ABOVE FOR 
DETAILS. OTHERWISE...STRONG EASTERLY MID TO UPPER FLOW...ON THE 
S PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW CUBA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER 
MAINLAND MEXICO...LIES S OF 20N. THERE IS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS 
BETWEEN THESE HIGHS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 101W-105W. THE STRONG UPPER FLOW 
COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A 
LARGE ZONE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

W OF 120W...
WIDESPREAD DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE SUBTROPICS DUE IN PART TO UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A 
LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NNW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 
28N151W AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO 25N131W. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 120W-130W ASSOCIATED 
WITH A PERTURBATION WITHIN THE ITCZ. ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW 
LEVELS...A DYING COLD FRONT N OF THE ZONE IS WEAKENING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING NE TRADES TO BE MAINLY BELOW 20 KT. 

$$
CANGIALOSI