000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIO CENTERED INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
26.8N 112.2W AT 25/1500 UTC MOVING NNW OR 335 DEG AT 12 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH IT 
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. JULIO IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS INCREASINGLY WESTERLY SHEAR IMPACTS THE CIRCULATION. 
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PANAMA ALONG 79W N OF 8N MOVING W 15-20 
KT. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC TURNING IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN BUT THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR ITS BASE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 78W-81W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 06N100W TO 14N115W TO 
13N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 109W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 120W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
TROPICAL STORM JULIO IS THE MAIN FEATURE...SEE ABOVE FOR 
DETAILS. OTHERWISE...STRONG EASTERLY MID TO UPPER FLOW ON THE S 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW CUBA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER 
MAINLAND MEXICO LIES S OF 20N. THERE IS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS 
BETWEEN THESE HIGHS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 98W-100W. THE STRONG UPPER FLOW 
COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A 
LARGE ZONE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

W OF 120W...
WIDESPREAD DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE SUBTROPICS DUE IN PART TO UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A 
LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NNW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 
27N149W AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO 25N130W. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 120W-130W ASSOCIATED 
WITH A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 13N126W. ELSEWHERE 
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT N OF THE ZONE IS WEAKENING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING NE TRADES TO BE MAINLY BELOW 20 KT. 

$$
CANGIALOSI