000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIO CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 111.1W AT 25/0300 UTC 
MOVING N NW OR 330 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 50 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 25N112W TO 23N110W. 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA TO THE S OF 26N. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL LOWS AND TROUGHS...

A LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N90W AND ESTIMATED 
AT 1009 MB. EXPECT THE LOW TO WEAKEN TO OPEN TROUGH NEAR 10N97W  
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N132W TO 14N122W. NE WINDS 
JUST W OF THE TROUGH ARE AROUND 20 KT WITH SOUTHERLY 20 KT FLOW 
E OF TROUGH EXTENDING E TO NEAR 110W. THIS TROUGH IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N83W TO 07N95W TO 14N120W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N82W TO 07N90W AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N97W AND WITHIN 20 NM OF 13N121W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 26N144W WITH A RIDGE E TO A 
CREST AT 29N130W. E OF THIS RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
ALONG 32N117W TO 22N121W TO 16N122W. THE UPPER LEVELS OVER 
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO ARE DOMINATED BY AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
NEAR 25N109W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 24N90W TO 17N96W.  

CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...AND OVER 
TROPICAL STORM JULIO...AND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W AND 128W.
THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED WITHIN 475 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 29N103W TO 07N130W. OTHERWISE VERY DRY UPPER 
AIR DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE 30N113W TO 18N122W 
TO 14N140W. AT THE LOW LEVELS LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS 
NOTED N OF 21N W OF 110W.

$$
NELSON