000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIO CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 110.2W AT 24/2100 UTC 
MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. JULIO IS LOCATED ON THE 
W SIDE OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N108W. THE RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO ALONG 22N OR 23N E OF 128W INTO MEXICO OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
90 NM OF 23N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 27N.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N96W TO 
14N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 05N82W 
TO 09N98W AND WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 05.5N100W TO 
08.5N106W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE LOCATED 
N OF A LINE FROM 32N103W TO 20N120W TO 15N140W. EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THIS AREA IS AN AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT W OF 130W AND A 
WEAKENING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
23N123W THAT IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. TO THE S OF THE LINE 
MENTIONED ABOVE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE 
EQUATOR WITH RECENT SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING 
SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 10N130W TO 15N123W. WITHIN 120 NM NW AND WITHIN 720 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH WINDS ARE TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT.

E OF 105W...
WINDS ALOFT OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE EASTERLY 
AND MEASURE 20 TO 30 KT AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT 
WINDS. AT THE SURFACE A NEARLY STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED 
NEAR 08N89W.

$$
CAB