000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIO CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 24/0300 UTC 
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT.  CURRENTLY A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 20N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN ROUGHLY 150 NM OF 
THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

A LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N88W AND ESTIMATED 
AT 1010 MB...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS LOW PRES FORMED 
ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MAY NOW BE ALONG 93W...BUT WAS 
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EARLIER AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE 
ANALYSIS. THE WAVE MAY BE RE-INTRODUCED ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS 
AT A LATER TIME.

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
LOW PRES NEAR 13N125W AND ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB. SEVERAL CYCLONIC 
SWIRLS HAVE BEEN APPEARING ALONG 13N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. THE 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND PERSIST IN 
THE SAME AREA FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 09N79W TO 09N94W TO 15N110W TO 
15N124W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 08N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N109W TO 
11N119W TO 12N134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 26N138W 
WITH A RIDGE E TO A CREST AT 30N125W. AN UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED 
INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N117W AND 
EXTENDS SW TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 22N120W. THE UPPER LEVELS 
OVER OLD MEXICO HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WITH AN UPPER 
CYCLONE AT 30N106W AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 24N106W. 
ADDITIONALLY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 25N91W TO 18N96W.  

CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO...OVER TROPICAL 
STORM JULIO...AND ALONG 11N BETWEEN 119W AND 134W. UPPER LEVEL E 
WINDS S OF THE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE W AND SW 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...MAINLY TO THE TO THE S OF 16N W OF 
105W. OTHERWISE VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA 
N OF 18N W OF 120W. AT THE LOW LEVELS LOCALLY OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED N OF 13N W OF 118W.

$$
NELSON