000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221607 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N-17N ALONG 105W/106W MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED JUST TO THE E OF THE WAVE NEAR 15.5N105W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CONSISTING OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 103W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N98W TO 16N103W. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC TURING OF THE LOW CLOUD FIELD FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 97W-111W. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION EXTENDS ALONG 83W N OF 5N MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS PRESENTLY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER IT IS ENHANCING CLOUDS/CONVECTION OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 13N W OF 80W TO ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SW OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 9N90W 11N98W 10N110W 10N120W 9N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-131W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W- 138W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... RATHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM FAR WESTERN TEXAS NEAR 32N102W TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 29N106W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CYCLONE TO 25N111W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-23N E OF 110W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MOVING E 15 KT. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS SE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N125W TO 21N120W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AND SE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THESE SAME WINDS ARE HINDERING THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DISTURBED DESCRIBED ABOVE FROM ORGANIZING TOO SOON. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED BY THESE WINDS WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH/SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. W OF 120W... THIS AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED BY BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 29N138W TO 25N125W. RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS AS NOTED BY A LAYER OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SSW N OF LINE 19N120W THE REMNANT LOW OF ISELLE LOCATED NEAR 14N125W 1010 MB MOVING WSW 7 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A MOSTLY EXPOSED CENTER CONSISTING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 122W-126W. HOWEVER... SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NW-N OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN REFERENCE TO HIGH SEAS FORECAST...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-10 FT ARE TO THE S OF 10N BETWEEN 97W-122W WITH SE-S SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 93W-124W. THESE SWELLS SHOULD THROUGH 48 HOURS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 109W-131W ...BUT BECOME MORE SW-W. SOME OF THIS SWELL TRAIN SHOULD IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221607 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N-17N ALONG 105W/106W MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED JUST TO THE E OF THE WAVE NEAR 15.5N105W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CONSISTING OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 103W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N98W TO 16N103W. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC TURING OF THE LOW CLOUD FIELD FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 97W-111W. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION EXTENDS ALONG 83W N OF 5N MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS PRESENTLY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER IT IS ENHANCING CLOUDS/CONVECTION OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 13N W OF 80W TO ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SW OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 9N90W 11N98W 10N110W 10N120W 9N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-131W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W- 138W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... RATHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM FAR WESTERN TEXAS NEAR 32N102W TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 29N106W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CYCLONE TO 25N111W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-23N E OF 110W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MOVING E 15 KT. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS SE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N125W TO 21N120W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AND SE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THESE SAME WINDS ARE HINDERING THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DISTURBED DESCRIBED ABOVE FROM ORGANIZING TOO SOON. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED BY THESE WINDS WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH/SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. W OF 120W... THIS AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED BY BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 29N138W TO 25N125W. RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS AS NOTED BY A LAYER OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SSW N OF LINE 19N120W THE REMNANT LOW OF ISELLE LOCATED NEAR 14N125W 1010 MB MOVING WSW 7 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A MOSTLY EXPOSED CENTER CONSISTING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 122W-126W. HOWEVER... SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NW-N OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN REFERENCE TO HIGH SEAS FORECAST...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-10 FT ARE TO THE S OF 10N BETWEEN 97W-122W WITH SE-S SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 93W-124W. THESE SWELLS SHOULD THROUGH 48 HOURS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 109W-131W ...BUT BECOME MORE SW-W. SOME OF THIS SWELL TRAIN SHOULD IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. $$ AGUIRRE